Barring some truly awful and unforeseeable event, there will be no red wave in November. That leads us with the following three scenarios:
- TRUMP WINS ANOTHER SQUEAKER: The federal government remains divided, as the GOP is in no position to retake the House. Trump predictably views the outcome as vindication for his lawless ways, and GOP members of Congress fall into line. The party is consequently even more identified with Trump’s whims and corruption than before, and constitutional crises ensue. Things don’t look good for 2024, but it isn’t clear that there will even be another election, as Trump’s authoritarian streak, abetted by Barr, becomes more conspicuous.
- BIDEN WINS NARROWLY; THE SENATE STAYS RED: There is very little meaningful legislation, but Biden and McConnell at least work together to keep the lights on. Trump’s failure is generally viewed in the GOP as the product of bad luck with the pandemic. There are no fundamental changes within the party; the PBP/Reactionary bargain remains in effect.
- BLUE WAVE!: Now things get more exciting! The Reactionaries and the PBPs start tearing each other to pieces. PBPs blame Trump’s capriciousness and lack of interest in working with anyone outside his base for his failures; Reactionaries, on the other hand, blame the PBPs for not doing enough to support their man. The 2024 primaries turn into a contest pitting a pure Reactionary (Hawley, perhaps?) against a Reagan Coalition candidate (Cotton?). Who wins? Stay tuned.