Without much discussion or even thought, we seem to have arrived at a middle course: fewer restrictions than the Chinese; less testing than the Koreans; more distancing than the Swedes. The result has been a new equilibrium, with a high number of deaths, but not so high as to swamp our medical resources, and an economy that is running at about 75 percent, due to continued social distancing.
The Phase One regulations are consistent with the new equilibrium, but they won’t last; the momentum to open up appears to be irresistible regardless of the facts on the ground, and Trump will insist in any event. So what happens next? What level of deaths and economic activity do we have when distancing is no longer mandated, but is only self-imposed?
We don’t have anything like the testing regime that we logically need for future phases, so there are two possibilities, neither of which is very appealing. If animal spirits return and we all decide to be Trump’s “warriors,” the death toll will spike again. If large segments of the population remain cautious and refuse to congregate in large groups even in the absence of distancing regulations, the economy will continue to limp along at roughly its current rate. My bet is on the second scenario, but neither is good news for the Trump re-election campaign.