The Election and the Known Unknowns

Here’s what I think I know about November:

1. BIDEN IS GOING TO WIN THE POPULAR VOTE. His margin on a national basis is too high and stable for Trump to overcome, even under significantly different circumstances.
2. THE DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO HOLD THE HOUSE: That was likely even before the pandemic and the ensuing recession. There will be no dramatic recovery, and the GOP will be blamed to some extent.
3. THE DEMOCRATS SHOULD WIN SEATS IN THE SENATE: That’s just a matter of math. The GOP is defending far more seats.

Here’s what I don’t know:

1. WHO WINS IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE? Trump is going to have to run the table in the swing states again to win. The odds are against it, but it certainly isn’t impossible; he proved that in 2016.
2. CAN THE DEMOCRATS TAKE CONTROL OF THE SENATE? There are enough seats in play to make that a realistic possibility. The balance of probabilities is against it, though. We will need a wave election for it to happen.

There are three scenarios for what happens to the nation in 2021: a GOP sweep; a Democratic sweep; or mixed government. I will discuss each of those in my next post.