So how should Biden deal with the Chinese? It’s complicated. Here are some principles:
- THIS AIN’T YOUR DADDY’S COLD WAR: As I’ve noted before, the Soviet Union presented an ideological and military challenge, while China is essentially an economic partner and rival. It’s a different situation that calls for a different response.
- THERE’S NO GUARANTEE WE WILL WIN, EITHER: Don’t assume that we will prevail just because the Soviet Union imploded. This is not a morality play.
- USE ALLIANCES: “America First” has played into the hands of the Chinese. Treat our erstwhile friends kindly and cooperate with them to apply pressure to the Chinese. Our greatest advantage over them is our cozier neighborhood; don’t blow it, like Trump.
- BE FLEXIBLE, PRAGMATIC, AND REALISTIC: China isn’t going away. We need to try carrots as well as sticks. The ultimate objective is to reach an agreement on the rules of the game. For example, it is inevitable that China will gain more control over its coast; the real task is to make sure it doesn’t threaten Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan by creating a new chokepoint in the South China Sea.
- COOPERATE WHERE NECESSARY AND POSSIBLE: As with the virus and climate change.
- EMPHASIZE WHAT YOU CAN CONTROL, NOT WHAT YOU CAN’T: We’re not going to persuade the Chinese to change their regime and give up their dreams of moving upstream on technology. To the extent that is a threat to us, the correct response is to improve as a competitor, by attracting and cultivating more talent and by using subsidies for tech projects on occasion.
- STAND UP FOR HUMAN RIGHTS: No more sucking up to Xi. On the other hand, it wouldn’t hurt to acknowledge the contributions of the Chinese people to world civilization from time to time.
- GET RID OF THE STUPID TARIFFS: We should be trying to re-energize world trade institutions in a manner consistent with our values and interests, not to engage in mindless mercantilism that only hurts consumers and drives up costs.