The Second Term: China

No one, almost certainly including Donald Trump, knew how far he would press his ridiculous mercantilist ideas during his first term. Would he really demand fundamental changes in China, or would he apply tariffs briefly, win some illusory concessions, and declare victory? Your guess was as good as mine.

In the end, the answer was a muddle; Trump undoubtedly pushed the envelope with his tariffs, and did plenty of damage to both countries, but the situation never got completely out of control. Don’t expect that to continue in a second term. Having campaigned ferociously against the Chinese prior to November, and without any electoral accountability thereafter, he will be free to just let it rip. Relations between the two countries will become significantly worse. The trade war will intensify, the world will move towards spheres of influence, and some sort of a shooting war in the South China Sea is not out of the question.