The outcome of the general election won’t be completely dictated by the health and economic impacts of the virus, but they are going to be a huge factor. Trump will attempt to spin himself as a heroic, indispensable virus buster; the Democrats, with the facts on their side, will argue otherwise. Partisans on both sides will be unmoved by rhetoric. It’s going to come down to swing voters and the facts on the ground.
So what can we expect? If it is a V-shaped recession, and it’s morning in America in November, Trump will have the advantage. For that to happen, the virus has to more or less disappear in a few months, and the government has to do a pretty good job of replacing the lost private sector spending and keeping millions of badly stressed businesses intact. If you were a betting man, would you put your money on those things happening? Didn’t think so.