The result of the fundi contest in Iowa was completely consistent with the polls. The surprise was that Biden leaked votes to Mayor Pete, and, to a lesser extent, Klobuchar. Why did that happen?
You can attribute it to Biden’s shortcomings as a campaigner, but he had a relatively strong performance in the debate prior to Iowa, and he was pouring plenty of resources into the state, so it didn’t really have anything to do with him. No, in all likelihood, this was about the drip drip drip of Ukraine; the undecided voters broke for the fresh faces with less baggage than the guy who figures to get slimed over Ukraine day after day during the campaign. To put it another way, the voters were frightened that Ukraine could turn into the 2020 equivalent of Clinton’s e-mail pseudo-scandal, with the same ultimate result.
If I’m right, it was a reasonable choice, albeit one shamefully driven by unscrupulous GOP politicians and media figures. The NH voters will probably go the same way, but Biden was never going to win there, anyway. Will minorities in Nevada and SC concur? That’s the real drama over the next few weeks. Their decision will have a huge impact on the outcome of the campaign.