On the “Trump Peace Plan”

Everyone knows what a successful peace plan looks like: the use of the 1967 borders, with minimal and realistic land swaps; the payment of compensation in exchange for the loss of the right of return; a demilitarized Palestinian state; and some historically Arab neighborhoods of Jerusalem as the capital of the new state. It hasn’t happened, because both sides (with reason) felt that the risks of genuinely trying to make peace outweighed the benefits.

I don’t claim to be an expert in the political geography of the West Bank, but anyone can look at the Trump map and see that it doesn’t result in a viable Palestinian state. That wasn’t the objective. The objectives were to help Bibi and the man on golf cart in their upcoming re-election campaigns, and to show the Palestinians that they are at the mercy of the Israelis and the Americans. You might think this is outrageously bad, Trump and Bibi say, but if you say no, conditions on the ground will only get worse, and no one in the outside world cares enough about you to help you.

How will the Palestinians react? They will look for diplomatic help from Europe, China, and Russia in the short run. They will undoubtedly get some, but not enough to make a tangible difference. Their big picture is the American election. If a Democrat wins, relations between the US and Israel will become much frostier, and America will once again attempt to be an even-handed mediator. If not, and Trump wins, they’re just screwed, barring a revolution in Egypt or Jordan or a highly improbable Iranian military victory over the US and Israel.