To summarize, Elizabeth Warren:
- Initially said relatively little about health care, and seemed to be open to a variety of plans to expand coverage;
- Then embraced Bernie’s plan without indicating how she would pay for it;
- Then came up with her own implausible plan to pay for it;
- Then proposed an interim plan with a public option and suggested that the quest for M4A would be postponed until the latter stages of her term.
#4 is reasonably consistent with mainstream opinion within the Democratic Party, and is not logically ridiculous. But how will these changes of position play out politically? Will supporting both a moderate interim approach and M4A give her the best or the worst of worlds?
There is no doubt that any kind of retreat from M4A will cost her some votes on the left. Those are votes she can afford to lose. The real question is whether moderates will feel more comfortable with her as a result of the change of course, or whether they will continue to focus on the problems associated with the ultimate M4A goal and her lack of consistency on the subject.
Warren was better off when the thrust of her campaign was on bashing billionaires and curing capitalism. M4A is a distraction from that message. In this case, I think the journey is the destination, and health care is going to be an albatross for the rest of the campaign, and into the general election if she is the nominee.