Iraq is characterized by the following divisions:
- The sectarian one between Sunni and Shiite;
- Supporters of an independent Iraq against proponents of an Iranian satellite state; and
- Supporters of various Shiite faction leaders.
The “solution” to this has been an extremely weak state that doles out benefits to the well-connected, and tries desperately to balance the interests of the United States and Iran. As you can see from the action in the street, it isn’t working, which is hardly a surprise, given the Lebanese precedent. But what is the better alternative?
I predicted years ago that Iraq would end up as a military dictatorship–the lite beer version of Saddam’s regime. In the long run, I still think that is where the country is going. In the meantime, for our purposes, it is pointless to try to force Iraq to actively take sides against Iran, because that simply won’t happen; if pushed to its logical conclusion, the outcome would be another civil war that would be even worse than the status quo.