On 1998 and 2020

Many Democrats are worried that an unsuccessful attempt to impeach will result in an electoral disaster in 2020. I don’t think that will happen, for the following reasons:

  1. Trump is guiltier than Clinton was;
  2. You can make a much better case that his actions are “high crimes and misdemeanors;”
  3. The country is even more polarized now than it was then; and
  4. 1998 was a midterm election. Overreaching by the GOP helped to drive up Democratic turnout. 2020 is a presidential election, so the bases will already be mobilized, and turnout should not be an issue either way.