With a big enough sample size, even unpredictability becomes predictable. The Iranians have seen Trump bluster, and then back down, enough times to conclude that he won’t launch anything more than a symbolic strike against them no matter how much they provoke him. As a result, they are opposing his “maximum pressure” with “maximum resistance” without paying any additional price.
This is the dilemma I warned about years ago: if you want to bluster constantly and remain credible, you have to be willing to deliver on your threats in a big way at least once, even if it blows up the economy and threatens your chances of re-election. Bolton may be gone, but MBS is still there, and Bibi probably will be, too; both of them want America at war with Iran, and will be in Trump’s ear constantly. I still say they are more likely than not to get their war, particularly if they keep telling Trump that his reputation as a tough guy is at risk if he doesn’t roll the dice, because it will be true.