Boris Johnson’s government has a majority of one. An election looms. Should he go now, or later?
If he calls a snap election, he gets the maximum benefit from the “Boris bounce.” Barring massive tactical voting from Remainers or an implausibly strong showing from the Brexit Party, he is likely to win a large majority, given his ability to rally the troops against Corbyn’s extremism. He will then be in a position to push his cherished no-deal Brexit through Parliament without causing a constitutional crisis.
The second option requires him to jam no-deal through the system regardless of the clear sentiments of the existing Parliament. It will involve a constitutional crisis, and probably embarrass the monarchy. He will then own both the crisis itself and the many problems that will arise from no-deal. His chances of losing after a chaotic Brexit are much higher.
To me, this is a very simple decision. It appears, however, that Boris values Brexit more than stability, the constitution, or even success at the polls. That’s both dangerous and logically absurd.