The luck of the draw did Biden no favors; it put him in a group with two hungry identity politicians–Harris and Booker. He’s clearly more vulnerable from the identity side of the graph than he is from the fundis.
How can he improve his performance? Here are some ideas:
- GET AN EARLIER WAKEUP CALL: Too many of his answers at the first debate were tentative and rambling. Harris hurt him, not because anyone really thinks he’s a bigot, but because she made him look like a loser. The whole rationale for his candidacy is his ability to win in 2020; if he loses that, he’s done. More, and better, preparation is the key.
- BEWARE OF BOOKER: Booker needs to peel realo votes from him to remain viable in the race. Expect him to attack early and often on identity issues.
- CHANGE THE SUBJECT: Talk about Trump and make the realo case as often and forcefully as possible. Warren and Sanders may provide some opportunities with their statements on the previous night.
- HARRIS IS A FLIP-FLOPPER: Harris is vulnerable on her record as a prosecutor, but Biden isn’t positioned to make that case. Instead, focus on her inability to decide whether she is a realo or a fundi, particularly on health care. Presidents have to make hard decisions, after all.
- DON’T OVERREACT: There will be a temptation to come out being too aggressive to compensate for last month’s fiasco. Don’t do it. Remain as calm and affable as possible.