Here’s what we know about the Democratic candidates for president two weeks before the second debate:
- Biden is an eminently fallible frontrunner, but enjoys the strong support of moderate and elderly voters;
- Warren and Sanders are in a struggle for the limited number of fundi votes. Warren has the higher ceiling, but will have difficulty winning over Bernie Bros;
- Based on his fundraising success, Mayor Pete has emerged as the most likely Biden replacement candidate over the more qualified Klobuchar and Booker;
- Harris has shown impressive campaigning skills, but has not clearly decided whether to run as a realo or a fundi. The votes for her are most likely on the realo side; and
- The other candidates don’t really matter much.
The only real surprise here is #3. I still think Booker has a chance, but he needs to establish himself as a viable Biden replacement candidate quickly, or his window will be closed.