The case for Joe Biden is simple and persuasive: America just wants incremental change and to be freed from Trump, not a revolution; and he can win by picking off male blue collar workers who were put off by Hillary Clinton, Never Trumpers, businessmen worried about tariffs, and moderate suburban women. The polls suggest that a large plurality of Democrats agree with this approach. But what about Warren? What is her theory, and how does she win, using 2016 as a baseline?
Warren’s theory (against the evidence, including the 2018 election) is that Trump’s victory was driven by a hunger for radical change that he has failed to meet. Here is where she stands with groups of potential difference makers:
- INCREASE MINORITY TURNOUT: Clinton had a deep and longstanding connection to African-Americans; Warren doesn’t. Not happening.
- MALE BLUE COLLAR WORKERS: Warren makes no concessions to them on cultural issues. Like Sanders, she is effectively hoping that a purely economic message of solidarity will work magic. It won’t.
- BUSINESS INTERESTS: Are you kidding me? Anyone who worries about Trump’s tariffs and erratic behavior will vote for a third party candidate.
- GENUINE CONSERVATIVES: Ditto. They’re not voting for a watered-down version of Bernie’s “revolution.”
- YOUNG PEOPLE: Lots of potential here. But will they come out and vote in much larger numbers? History says no.
As you can see, it is possible for Warren to win in 2020, particularly if the economy goes sour, but her path is much narrower than Biden’s, and is almost completely dependent on her ability to mobilize millennials.