Imagine that you are President Rouhani of Iran. You desperately want to avoid war and escape sanctions, but the country is far from united behind you. The Revolutionary Guards are basically a state within a state, and the Supreme Leader blows hot and cold. You can’t rely on controlling either of them.
You can’t realistically expect to win a clear military or diplomatic victory in this latest confrontation with the Great Satan. Given Trump’s track record, however, it is plausible that you could do a USMCA and sell him on insignificant changes to the initial nuclear deal. He needs something he can call a “win,” so give him one, as long as it doesn’t affect your interests in any meaningful way.
The problem is that, while Trump himself can easily be bought off, he is surrounded by people who are panting for war: Bibi; MBS; MBZ; Bolton; and Pompeo, just to name a few. In addition, your strategy of mobilizing the Europeans against America isn’t working, because Trump doesn’t care what they think. He is far more interested in Tucker Carlson’s opinion than Angela Merkel’s.
You could run to Putin for protection, but you know what a cynical bastard he is. He would sell you out in a heartbeat for something he really wants, such as a free hand in Ukraine. Xi is more promising. He needs Persian Gulf oil, he’s more reliable, and he’s not on your border.
And so, my advice is as follows:
- Internationalize the conflict to the maximum extent possible. Try to get the Chinese involved in some grand diplomatic solution that could be spun as a “win” to Trump and the American public.
- Do your best to keep the Revolutionary Guards from killing any Americans.
- Send out the message, over and over again, that war with Iran will look like the war with Iraq. Carlson clearly believes that, and his opinion matters. Trump is afraid he will lose his base if he launches another Iraq War.
Will any of this work? Unfortunately, events are more powerful than you are. There are no guarantees. The odds are worse than even. But the situation is not completely hopeless.