Back in 1997, both China and the liberal democracies of the West could imagine Hong Kong as a useful sort of bridge. For China, it was a source of finance, growth, and information, but far enough away to avoid political contamination. The West, for its part, could imagine Hong Kong as a role model for a liberalizing China. It all made sense.
Today, not so much. There is more freedom in China on a day to day basis than most people realize, but it doesn’t extend to meaningful political participation, and the repression is getting worse, not better. And China doesn’t need Hong Kong any more. It has Shanghai, and its own high tech dreams. The notion of one country and two systems sounds like more of a threat than a promise to the Chinese leadership.
Hong Kong probably won’t die in a hail of PLA bullets. It will continue to exist as an economic hub for China. It just won’t be a point of convergence between China and the West, and the freedoms of liberalism will wither away, sooner rather than later.