Make the same assumptions as yesterday, except that Harris, not Biden, wins the election. How does the real world outcome differ? Mostly, it doesn’t, but there are some exceptions:
- POLITICAL CLIMATE: The right-wing outrage machine predictably goes bonkers over the election of a woman with color. For her part, Harris does not suffer fools and bigots gladly. As a result, Harris’ tenure is filled with attempts to shut down the government and block debt ceiling increases.
- TAXING AND SPENDING: The Democratic tax bill, passed through reconciliation, puts more emphasis on funding the LIFT Act, and increases the deficit a bit more.
- RUSSIA: Harris takes a harder line on Putin than Biden.
- MIDDLE EAST: In a similar vein, while Biden would try to return the US to its traditional role as even-handed mediator, Harris is openly sympathetic to the Palestinians, and tougher on Netanyahu. American relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are even worse than they were under Obama.
- IMMIGRATION: Harris pushes harder, and earlier, for comprehensive immigration reform, which nonetheless fails due to GOP obstruction in the Senate. She then takes administrative steps to protect illegal immigrants that are successfully challenged in court. Ultimately, her efforts are for naught.