A few days ago, the NYT featured similar columns from Bret Stephens and Ross Douthat explaining how Trump will win in 2020. Stephens says this will happen because the Democrats are lurching to the left; Douthat is more equivocal, as he acknowledges that Trump isn’t as accomplished a politician as some of his right-wing populist partners in crime, but he thinks the Democrats need to be more accepting of reactionary views on the culture wars. Are they right?
They’re being too pessimistic, even assuming that the economy continues to roar in spite of the inverted yield curve, which may well not be true. The center of the Democratic Party, in spite of Stephens’ nightmares, hasn’t moved that much; otherwise, why would Biden be leading in the polls? The Democrats won the midterms just a few months ago. Trump’s approval ratings are still stuck well below 50 percent. Trump himself is still the divisive, obnoxious blowhard who turns off moderates and women. Just because Modi won doesn’t mean he will.