Donald Trump is doing his best to persuade the world he doesn’t want to go to war with Iran. If you take him at his word, which is almost always a mistake, he is just waiting for the ayatollahs to call him to make a deal. One assumes his optimism on this score is based on his experience with North Korea.
Is North Korea a good analogy for Iran? No, because:
- War with North Korea would be unimaginably costly for both sides. Iran doesn’t have that kind of weaponry; the worst it can do is drive up the cost of oil to the point of causing considerable pain throughout the world.
- North Korea’s neighbors are desperate to avoid war. Saudi Arabia and Israel desperately want to drag us into one, because they will benefit from it far more than we ever could.
- Trump kind of enjoys Kim’s outrageousness. The dour ayatollahs, not so much. For their part, the ayatollahs don’t have the kind of negotiating flexibility that Kim does, if they ever wanted to use it, which doesn’t seem likely.