On the Prospects for MV4

Theresa May apparently plans to have MV4 in the near future. Will the fourth time be the charm?

May’s tactic has always been to play the two sides against each other. She will try to use the late October exit date and the possibility that her negotiations with Corbyn might succeed as leverage against the Brexiteers, and the likelihood of a resignation and a new no-deal PM as leverage against Labour. My guess, however, is that neither side will view these threats as being credible enough to change positions, and MV4 will fail by about the same margin as MV3.

Then what? The no-dealers are going to make a new push for May’s resignation. If they get it, she will probably be succeeded by a no-dealer, who will end negotiations with Labour, apply as much pressure as possible on the Conservative Remainer MPs to toe the line, and run the clock out. Whether this plan will work or not depends on the Remainers. Will they put party loyalty before their concerns about the impacts of no-deal, or not? That’s a question that I can’t answer.