We obviously haven’t seen the actual report, and we don’t know if we ever will. My guess, however, is that its nuances are less favorable to Trump than Barr is suggesting, as follows:
- The facts that are publicly known show that the Trump campaign had far more contacts with the Russians than its officials let on, openly welcomed assistance from them, and repeatedly lied about it. Mueller probably repeats all of this, but goes on to say that there is no evidence of a quid pro quo, and that the contacts themselves do not quite rise to the level of agreement necessary to make out a case for conspiracy. In other words, the Trump campaign, as far as we can tell, just managed to stay on the right side of the line. You could call that an “exoneration,” but not by much.
- On obstruction, I suspect that the critical issue was intent, and Mueller found the motivations behind Trump’s statements and behavior to be baffling (as do we all, at times). This is a variant of the “he lies all the time, so how can he have a corrupt intent in this case?” defense to which I alluded yesterday. It is hardly a ringing endorsement of Trump’s innocence.
If I’m right, and I think I am, the GOP is welcome to run its 2020 campaign on the basis of “he’s such a liar, he couldn’t possibly obstruct justice.” That’s not quite as catchy as “Make America Great Again.”