For about the first hour, I thought I was watching a bull-baiting, not a debate. It might have had the intellectual heft of a Twinkie, but it certainly was compelling TV.
It is becoming clear that Donald Trump believes he can overcome all of his past heresies and all of his logical inconsistencies with pure, unadulterated swagger. As long as the format permits him to avoid any kind of extensive cross-examination, he may be right. My guess is that the winnowing of the field and the cumulative effect of commercials highlighting his inconsistencies that will be forthcoming in due time will ultimately destroy his candidacy, but that will not happen overnight.
Winners, losers, and also-rans:
Winners:
Trump: Came across as the most compelling candidate in the field, no matter how ridiculous his ideas are.
John Kasich: Articulated the Christian Democrat position better than Jeb Bush, and was rewarded for it by the hometown crowd.
Mike Huckabee: Had some of the best lines of the night and was forceful without sounding angry.
Losers:
Jeb Bush: No big mistakes, but no swagger. His backers have to be worried. Sooner or later, someone has to mention that his accomplishments in Florida were the product of a huge real estate bubble, and he can’t blame the federal government for the aftermath, because his brother was President at the time.
Chris Christie: His usual bellicosity was lost in Trump’s exhaust. His exchanges with Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee were draws at best.
Also-Rans
Ted Cruz: Made his anti-establishment pitch clearly and forcefully, but it, too, disappeared in the Trump supernova. Does he really believe that he can get elected without reaching out to anyone outside of the hard right?
Ben Carson: Tentative and unremarkable, although he improved as the night went on.
Rand Paul: Gave and took about equally.
Marco Rubio: Made some effort to talk about real world problems and made his case for being new blood, but his statements on abortion are going to cost him dearly if he is the nominee.
Scott Walker: Showed a reasonable command of the facts, but did not swagger particularly effectively. There is something about this man’s personality that I find deeply disagreeable. If someone ever makes a horror movie with an evil Eagle Scout protagonist, Walker should be the star.