Based on a number of polls, including one which shows that the socially liberal/economically conservative quadrant represents only about five percent of the electorate, Paul Krugman argues that the Democrats can support extremely progressive legislation without fear of losing in 2020. Is he right?
No, for several reasons:
- POLLS CAN BE WRONG: Just ask President Hillary Clinton.
- THE FINDINGS OF POLLS DEPEND ON THE QUESTION ASKED: Significant policy questions inevitably come with tradeoffs that frequently aren’t reflected in the poll questions.
- POLLS CAN TAKE ISSUES OUT OF CONTEXT: For example, there are plenty of members of the Reactionary faction of the GOP who would, in isolation, support higher taxes on the wealthy. These people are primarily values voters who aren’t going to support Bernie Sanders even if they agree on fiscal issues.
- POLLS DON’T USUALLY REFLECT THE WORKINGS OF OUR ELECTORAL SYSTEM: If 100 percent of the voters in California support single-payer, how does that help you win Florida?
The fact is that the socially liberal/economically conservative quadrant, regardless of its relatively small size, consists of swing voters that the Democrats need to win in 2020. Otherwise, there would be no uproar about a potential Howie Starbucks candidacy.