At first glance, the reserved, bookish Madison would appear to have nothing in common with the bombastic, narcissistic, invincibly ignorant Donald Trump. And yet, they do share one enthusiasm–the use of economic sanctions.
Their view of sanctions, of course, was motivated by wildly different circumstances. When Madison was in office, the United States was an economic and military minnow. Madison wasn’t willing to create a Hamiltonian state by substantially increasing the size of the army and the navy, so what other tools did he have? Trump, on the other hand, has the advantage of the largest economy and the most powerful military on the planet. He likes economic sanctions because they create leverage, leverage leads to successful negotiations, and negotiations, not war, are his ultimate test of manhood.
Sanctions ultimately failed for Madison; the result was the War of 1812. Sanctions and political theater also appear to be falling short for Trump in Venezuela. Will military intervention in some form be the inevitable Plan B? My guess is yes, but we’ll see; it depends, to some extent, on whether Trump or Rubio is really running the show.