Pearl Harbor was the Japanese response to an American effort to limit their attempts, in effect, to turn parts of China into a colony. Today, of course, the shoe is on the other foot; now the concern is about Chinese imperialism in its near abroad. Is another war of annihilation inevitable?
No. Unlike Germany in 1914 and Japan in 1941, China is not a militaristic society. The Chinese have no interest in turning Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and the Philippines into colonies, or in compelling fundamental changes in their economic and political systems; all they want is subservience in foreign affairs. Finally, the Pacific Ocean, unlike the English Channel in 1914, is very wide, so America has plenty of room to retreat, if necessary.
I can see three scenarios in the long run:
- We reach an agreement with the Chinese on the international rules of the game. We remain competitors, but peaceful ones, and the two countries collaborate on issues of mutual interest.
- The world is divided into spheres of influence. Japan, et. al. become Chinese vassal states. The two countries compete for the support of Australia and India. The Cold War, in effect, has returned.
- War.
The best possible outcome is #1. The worst, obviously, is #3. My money is on #2, because, when push comes to shove, I think America will retreat instead of going to war over Asia.