Reasonable people can disagree as to whether the USMCA is better or worse than NAFTA. I would say it’s slightly worse, because it will result in increased costs for the auto manufacturers, and thus create an incentive to move production completely out of North America, but that is a debatable point. What isn’t debatable, in my opinion, is that the final product wasn’t worth all of the drama and the hostility. It just isn’t that different from NAFTA.
So how will the Democrats react to the USMCA? Here are four possible outcomes, ranked in order of their desirability:
- The new Democratic House votes against it on the basis that it does too little to protect workers’ rights. NAFTA remains in place. The Democrats have a pro-worker stick with which to beat the GOP in 2020, and there are no negative economic impacts.
- The USMCA is considered in the lame duck Congress and passes without Democratic votes. Economic conditions are marginally worse, but the Democrats still have the stick.
- The USMCA passes in the new Congress with some Democratic votes. Nothing good comes from this, and Trump gets a desperately-needed “win.”
- The USMCA fails in the new Congress, but Trump petulantly moves to withdraw from NAFTA in spite of desperate pleas from the Chamber of Commerce. Chaos and litigation ensue. It is the American equivalent of a no-deal Brexit.
#4 is the worst case scenario. It cannot be entirely dismissed.