The web is full of analysis of Trump’s Twitter equivalent of a declaration of war against Iran. The consensus seems to be that Trump is attempting to use the same tactics that he employed, at least in his eyes, successfully against North Korea. The formula would be threats of annihilation + sanctions =surrender.
Is this correct? Of course it is. Trump is a man of limited experience and imagination. If something works for him, he uses it until he wears it out. Just ask his base, or the students at Trump University.
Leaving aside the fact that his North Korea “diplomacy” has actually accomplished less than nothing, the two would-be victims are very dissimilar, for the following reasons:
- Trump actually appears to like Kim, and views him as sort of a candidate for the political version of The Apprentice. The elderly Muslim leaders of Iran–not so much.
- Iran doesn’t have any nuclear weapons, thanks in part to the Obama deal, so war with the ayatollahs is a more viable option.
- North Korea is diplomatically isolated. On the Iran issue, it is the US that is isolated.
- Kim is in no way accountable to his people. The Iranian system, on the other hand, has real democratic elements. That means the Iranians can’t change course on a dime the way Kim can.
- Powerful elements of the Iranian system profit from sanctions, and won’t be persuade to change course by them.
- Trump’s best international friends–Bibi and MBS–want regime change in Iran. Our allies in Asia have no plan for regime change in North Korea.
The bottom line is that the threats + sanctions formula is not going to force Iran to capitulate. Then what? A limited strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities isn’t going to stop the Iranian government from supporting Hezbollah and the Houthis, which is a big part of the rationale for scrapping Obama’s agreement. Trump won’t agree to a huge, expensive ground offensive that leads to the occupation of Iran. That leaves the one alternative that none of the commentators has even dared to contemplate, but will certainly occur to Trump: a bomb; a parade; and a statue.