Key questions from Trump’s decision to exit the Iran deal:
1. Will the sanctions cause the Iranian economy to crumble? No. They didn’t before, and Russia and China were participating last time. They won’t cooperate this time. Life was already tough, and will get tougher, but the Iranians will manage to get by.
2. Will the sanctions result in regime change? If they do, it will only be to empower the hard-liners, who will take more control of the economy and unleash more repression. Even to a greater extent than before, anyone complaining about the regime will be treated as an American agent. The US will serve as a handy scapegoat for the government’s failures.
3. How will the Europeans react? The effect of the sanctions will largely be felt by European companies, who will call on their governments for help. The governments will temporize. Public opinion in Europe will swing wildly against America. Trump’s trip to the UK will be marked by large demonstrations.
4. How will the Russians and Chinese react? Both will view the sanctions as obnoxious American financial imperialism. Both will assist the Iranians in avoiding them. The Russians will openly offer the Iranians diplomatic and economic support; the Chinese will work to avoid war in order to maintain their oil supply.
5. Will Iran go straight for the bomb? In the short run, the Iranian government will probably try to make a deal with the Europeans that features partial compliance with the deal (with some symbolic changes needed to appease the hard-liners) in exchange for active support against the US. If that fails, and it probably will, they will resume their nuclear program.
6. Does Trump know he’s heading for war? Most of the pundits believe he is plunging into a thicket without a viable Plan B. My guess is otherwise. Certainly Netanyahu and MBS want war.
7. How will the American public react? Again, I’m guessing here, but I don’t think that 1979 rings in the ears of the American public as much as the Iraq War. Higher Trump gas prices will not be welcomed. There will have to be a serious provocation to get public support for a war.
8. How does it end? Either Trump backs down or Iran is annihilated. Netanyahu and MBS will make sure it’s the latter.