Imagine that you are Donald Trump, which is to say that you hate Iran, you love dramatic displays of American (and by extension, your) power, and you have the attention span of a smaller-than-average gnat. Your best friends in the Middle East, Bibi and MBS, tell you constantly that regime change in Iran is essential. Bolton agrees with them, and Mattis isn’t going to stand in the way.
Regime change it must be, then. But how? Here are your options:
- Simply launching “cut the grass” strikes on nuclear and missile facilities obviously isn’t going to get it done.
- Providing aid to opponents of the regime has little chance of success, particularly since the nation will rally around the government during wartime.
- You could launch a massive ground war and occupy Iran, but that would look like Iraq, and you have no patience for that.
- You could try to decapitate the regime through the use of smart weapons, but how long would that take? Your intelligence is uncertain, and it took years to get Osama.
- A shock-and-awe conventional bombing campaign is no sure thing, either.
There is only one approach that is a sure winner–a nuclear attack. Admittedly, you would go down in history as a mass murderer, but what do you care? You would have shown everyone on the planet that you’re the baddest man alive, and they would put up statues of you in Israel and Saudi Arabia. You might even get a parade with tanks and fighters at home.
And so, Delenda est Iran.