Fast forward to 2017. Having successfully (at least in their eyes) dealt with the Greece question, the Germans have been pestering the French to reduce their deficit and institute “structural reforms” for the last 18 months. Francois Hollande, Nicolas Sarkozy, and Marine Le Pen are running for president.
Ms. Le Pen makes roughly the following argument to the French electorate:
“For years, the Germans have been telling us we have to become more like them–work harder, spend less, and save more. M. Sarkozy agrees with that, and will work hand in hand with the Germans to dismantle the social protections that we consider to be an essential part of our culture. M. Hollande can’t make up his mind; sometimes he half-heartedly stands up to the Germans, but sometimes he goes along with them and tries to pretend that we are equal partners in austerity. As a result, he accomplishes nothing, and the EU has become nothing but a German empire.
If you don’t want to give up your August vacations on the Riviera, your long lunches, and your 35 hour work week, there is only one candidate who will stand up for you and for France–me.”
It is just about a foregone conclusion at this point that Le Pen and Sarkozy will be in the run-off. The widespread assumption is that the establishment will stand firm for Sarkozy, and he will win. Personally, I think that Le Pen’s argument is going to resonate with French workers, and I wouldn’t bet the ranch that she will lose. If that turns out to be the case, life in the EU is going to get even more interesting than it is now.