Putin essentially had the following objectives in Syria:
- To protect Russia’s military and economic interests in the country;
- To prevent another fellow strong man from falling in the face of American pressure; and
- Just to make trouble for America, generally.
He succeeded in all of these things, partly because he and Assad were prepared to be completely ruthless, partly because he had lots of help on the ground from Hezbollah, and partly because he didn’t have to engage in any nation-building–there was already a reasonably competent tyrant in place, so his intervention was completely legal.
The down sides to the intervention are just starting to be felt. There is no permanent political solution in sight. The dangers of conflict with American-backed forces, and even with Americans themselves, are very real. And the war hasn’t done anything to improve his brutal image abroad.
Does he care about the last? My guess is he does. Is America prepared to turn the tables on him, and make him pay a continuing price for his actions? Unfortunately, that’s ultimately up to Trump.