It has become clear, if it wasn’t clear already, that the principal obstacle to DACA isn’t Trump or Mitch McConnell; it’s Paul Ryan and the Reactionaries in the House. How can their opposition be overcome?
Plan A was the shutdown. The idea was that the popularity of DACA, along with the fallout from Trump’s inflammatory comments and the unpopularity of the shutdown, would cow the GOP into conceding the point. It was obvious even three days on that it hadn’t worked. The Democrats were wise to cut the deal with McConnell and move on.
Plan B is to get a bill through the Senate with a large majority, persuade the unpredictable Trump to support it, and rely on that support to provide political cover for Ryan to violate the Hastert Rule. Will it work? It’s worth trying, but the odds are against it. It isn’t clear that there are enough Republican votes to pass an acceptable bill, there are never any guarantees with Trump, and history suggests there are no powers on earth strong enough to make the House leadership move on this issue as long as the GOP has a majority.
My best guess is that a bill will pass, but that Trump will equivocate, and the House will do nothing. The March deadline will pass, but Trump won’t want to take the blame for any ensuing deportations, so he will call for further negotiations and extend his deadline, probably more than once. The issue will remain in limbo until the election.
Plan C is to win the election and take control of the House. That’s really the best hope for DACA.