Here are the five biggest issues for the EU in 2018:
1. What happens with the German government? In the long run, the country will be better off if the Social Democrats don’t join the government. In the short run, it will be better off if they do. No predictions on what happens here.
2. Who wins the Italian election? There’s lots of danger for the EU and for the Italians themselves here.
3. What happens with Macron’s reform proposals? Jupiter is doing pretty well at home, but his plans for the EU won’t go anywhere without the assistance of the Germans, who appear to be gazing at their navels at the moment.
4. Whither Catalonia? The issue cries out for meaningful negotiations. Whether they will occur is anyone’s guess.
5. How does the EU respond to quasi-authoritarian governments within its borders? It’s hard to present yourself as a soft power option when some of your members don’t really believe in liberal democracy. No solution to this has been found to date.