It’s obvious what the Saudis get out of their de facto alliance with us against Iran. It’s less obvious what we get out of the bargain. Saudi oil is less important strategically than it used to be as a result of fracking technology, Saudi money and ideology have been used to spread terrorism, and you can hardly make the case that the Saudi regime is less repressive than the Iranian government.
Until now, perhaps. One can’t help but be intrigued by the reforms proposed by MBS. His willingness to tackle terrorism appears to be genuine. His liberalization of the economy and his efforts to promote the welfare of women are welcome. His fight against high-level corruption is long overdue. If he can make fundamental changes to the regime which will set it apart from Iran, that would change the equation.
For all that, there is good reason to be skeptical at this point. MBS’ forays into Yemen and Lebanon don’t exactly inspire confidence in his judgment. Forcing wealthy people into a luxury hotel and shaking them down isn’t my idea of due process. Finally, there is the danger that his liberalization efforts may promote a backlash. As I noted yesterday, it has happened before.
This episode just smells like the Shah of Iran all over again, possibly with worse consequences. I hope I’m wrong. I may be. But I don’t think so.