Trump’s victory has caused a power shift within the GOP. While the Trump tax plan is clearly PBP-friendly, the rest of his agenda is tilted towards the Reactionaries. Can this situation be reversed in the foreseeable future?
The Reactionaries are clearly the largest faction within the party, although probably not a majority. I can only see two scenarios in which the PBPs regain control of the party:
- A catastrophic failure on the part of the Trump Administration, resulting in a resounding Democratic victory in 2020; or
- A proliferation of Trump wannabes run against a single PBP presidential candidate, and lose, in the GOP primaries in 2024.
Both are reasonably possible, but neither is by any means assured.