As I’ve noted before, Trump will go to war with North Korea if he thinks events make it necessary, but he really wants to go to war with Iran. Why this is, I’m not sure. Maybe, like many of us, he still has memories of the humiliation in 1979. Maybe Bibi and the Saudis persuaded him to drink the Kool-Aid. Maybe it’s something else. In any event, he’s itching for a fight.
Ripping up the nuclear agreement is a self-evidently stupid idea that is even opposed by most of his administration; no further discussion of that is necessary. But what is Trump’s overall case against Iran? Here it is:
1. Iran promotes international terrorism. There was a time, not that long ago, when this was clearly true. I haven’t seen any evidence of it in years, however. Like Saudi Arabia, Iran aggressively pursues its interests internationally (including subsidizing militias in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon), but I wouldn’t call that terrorism, and it certainly didn’t support IS.
2. The Iranian state represses its people. Coming from the man who loves Sunni despots, this one is pretty rich.
3. Iran supports the Houthis in Yemen. So what? How does that impact American interests, and why are the Houthis any worse than the Yemeni government?
4. Iran supports the Assad government. That’s a better argument, but not from someone who clearly prioritized defeating IS and sucking up to Putin over regime change in Syria.
5. Iran, by itself and through its proxy Hezbollah, is a threat to Israel. Now we’re getting somewhere! Netanyahu had a chance to destroy Hezbollah while it was fighting on another front, but now it’s stronger than ever, and a genuine existential danger to Israel. The real question for an American president, however, is what that means for US interests. If you regard Israel as tantamount to a 51st state of the United States, the implications are obvious. If you don’t, and legally it isn’t, the situation is much more ambiguous; in cases in which American interests are not directly involved, the Israelis can be left to fend for themselves, and this is probably one of them.