There are three logically coherent approaches to the Afghanistan conundrum:
- Use carrots and sticks with the Pakistanis to deprive the Taliban of their sanctuaries;
- Put pressure on the Afghan government to get its act together by announcing a reasonable withdrawal date; or
- Increase troop levels in order to create a breathing space for the Afghan government to improve both its governance and the performance of its military.
All of these have been tried, and all have failed. #1 will only really work if you can substantially improve relations between Pakistan and India–good luck with that. Obama tried #2, only for the Taliban to regain ground, as one would have predicted. #3, otherwise known as “nation-building,” has been going on since 2001, with mediocre success at best.
The “new” Trump plan contains elements of all of these, but is fundamentally a “nation-building” approach, whether he acknowledges it or not. He is apparently pretending that “nation-building,” in the past, has been an overly idealistic effort to bring democracy to Afghanistan in lieu of genuinely effective government, but that is not the reality of the situation.
In all likelihood, what persuaded him to take up “nation-building,” in spite of his negative comments during the campaign, was his even stronger fear of “losing” in Afghanistan. That’s pathetic.