The Senate bill is, of course, a substantive disaster–more on that subject over the weekend. For today, the question is, will it pass?
There are four conservatives with “concerns.” Rand Paul is the only one of them with any principles; I expect him to vote no. The others will hold out for additional concessions until the last minute, but McConnell will correctly perceive them as yes votes, and will refuse to make any significant deals. They will capitulate.
I can’t see Susan Collins voting for the bill without significant changes that are unlikely to occur. The other “moderates” will be bought off with McConnell promises that are unrelated to health care. The vote will be 50-50. Pence will break the tie, and the bill will pass.