The issue: Did Trump obstruct justice in the investigation of Michael Flynn?
What we know: Trump took weeks to fire Flynn even in the face of evidence that he was vulnerable to blackmail. He then asked Comey in a private setting to stop the investigation. He also made it clear to Comey that he expected “loyalty.” When the investigation continued, Trump fired Comey for stated reasons that were obviously specious. He subsequently admitted that the firing was prompted by the Russia investigation.
What we don’t know: Motives and nuances are important here, and we weren’t in the room at the time. The most damning thing I have heard to date is that Trump cleared the room before he discussed the Flynn investigation with Comey, which strongly suggests awareness of wrongdoing. Of course, he may deny that, but if he does, no one will believe him, since he lies about everything all the time.
My analysis: This certainly sounds like obstruction of justice, but I suspect the Chris Christie defense will work: the man is just too stupid to understand the consequences of what he was doing.