I read an article on Politico.com last week in which a former Obama Administration official argued that the North Korean economy is more exposed to the outside world than you would think, and that severe sanctions, followed by an Iran-style deal, could work there. I’m a bit skeptical of his conclusions about the vulnerability of the North Korean economy, but in any event, the two countries are fundamentally different in the following ways:
1. The Iranian government had to take public opinion into account; the North Korean government does not. Iran is certainly no Jeffersonian democracy, but it does at least have some democratic elements in its system. The North Korean government doesn’t care in the slightest about the well-being of its subject people; its only interest is in self-preservation. If additional austerity is the price of maintaining power, so be it; the country has seen worse days.
2. Iran was more diplomatically isolated than North Korea is. You wouldn’t think that the hermit kingdom would have any friends, but the fact is that the Chinese will not, in the final analysis, take any actions that could jeopardize the existence of the regime. Iran couldn’t rely on anyone like that.