Will the EU even exist in 2020? That depends on the outcome of the French election. I’m not making any predictions at this point.
Assuming, for purposes of argument, that there still is an EU in 2020, it will be looking for leadership. As I noted yesterday, it is highly likely that the Germans, having been burned over the last several years, will prefer to play a more supporting role. Their most plausible successors are:
1. The Franco-German alliance is revived after a Macron victory. The EU seems to work better when the French and Germans are collaborating as equals. The French provide a bridge between German austerity and south European poverty. This is the best case scenario.
2. Someone from the EU itself steps up to the plate. Just who that would be is unclear to me.
3. Nobody takes charge. The EU, buffeted by nationalism everywhere, slowly descends into irrelevance.
The Holy Roman Empire, which the EU resembles in many respects, withered away after the Thirty Years’ War as a result of nationalist pressures and its own inability to maintain order. Scenario #3 is a recipe for the same outcome.