Well, that certainly was timely, wasn’t it?
The political argument for Scottish independence has never been more compelling. The Conservative Party barely has a presence in Scotland, but it is likely to govern the UK for the indefinite future. The Scots voted overwhelmingly against Brexit, but are stuck with its consequences. It would appear, therefore, that the government of the UK no longer has much of a claim to represent the interests of the Scottish people, and that is a big problem.
On the other hand, the economic argument for independence has rarely been weaker. The value of “Scottish” oil is diminishing by the day, so there is no obvious way for an independent Scotland to pay for a Scandinavian-style welfare state. In addition, a Scotland within the EU would undoubtedly have to adopt the euro, with all the consequences that entails. An independent Scotland would be proud, but poor.
If Scottish independence does become a reality, my guess is that the new country will be forced by the markets and the EU to adopt strong austerity measures almost immediately. In the long run, Scotland will have to look more like Ireland than Norway–that is, with an open, deregulated, low tax economy and a limited welfare state–in order to survive economically.
Do the Scots love the idea of independence more than their welfare state? We’ll find out in the next few years.