Has the U-Turn Already Occurred?

It’s too early to move the embassy to Jerusalem.  New settlements are an obstacle to peace.  Sanctions for Crimea won’t be lifted anytime soon.  We adhere to the One China policy.  Playing golf with Abe.

If you take all of this seriously, Trump has moved away from his unconventional ideas on foreign policy and towards a more normal, albeit inept and blustery, approach.  But should you assume that it means anything?

No.  Remember, Trump lies constantly in order to create confusion and preserve his freedom of action.  In addition, there were good tactical reasons to take the actions listed above.  He’s helping his buddy Bibi with the Israeli right by taking a harder line on the embassy and settlements; he creates leverage with Putin by maintaining the status quo for now; and he has too much on his plate to confront the Chinese just yet.

His ideas on mercantilism and terrorism are at the heart of his political identity. If you think they’re going away anytime soon, you’re making a big mistake.