1. In the long run, will Trump’s foreign policy be conventional or unconventional? That it will be truculent is a given, but to what end? Trump and Flynn seem to be wedded to neo-mercantilism and the Unholy Alliance, but the country, the GOP, and even members of his own cabinet will resist. The early returns are not encouraging, but we have four long years to go.
2. Which of the three economic scenarios will come to pass? The variables here are the intensity of the trade wars and entitlement cuts; a huge regressive tax cut and interest rate hikes are givens. Trade wars will make the Trump slump much worse; entitlement cuts will reduce the deficit and interest rates, but focus the pain on the poor. Neither of these is inevitable.
3. How much damage will be done to our political system? Trump cannot abide the idea of “losing.” Don’t expect him to sit by idly while his program (such as it is) bogs down in Congress, and is unpopular. He’s going to lie about the facts, do his best to muzzle the media, and ignore court orders. He will probably demand more law enforcement powers, and get them, as soon as there is a domestic terrorist attack. How far will this go? Nobody knows yet.