- Against the advice of his Cabinet and the will of the American people, Trump quickly enters into a deal with Putin wherein he gives the latter a free hand in the former USSR in exchange for assistance fighting terrorists and benevolent neutrality in disputes with China and Iran. Trump becomes disillusioned with the deal when it becomes clear that Putin is far more interested in inhaling Ukraine than in helping him deal with his various international crises. He subsequently pulls a 180 and tries to re-energize NATO. The Europeans look on, bemused.
- The outcome of the wars with North Korea and Iran was described in posts last week.
- Trump engineers a confrontation with the Chinese over the trade deficit and the South China Sea within six months of taking office. The world watches in horror as it appears that the two nuclear powers could engage in a shooting war. The war is averted when Trump gives China a free hand in the South China Sea (including Taiwan) in exchange for managed trade–i.e., import and export quotas.
- The GOP Congress passes a huge and regressive tax cut package. Business responds to it by stockpiling even more cash and by buying back stock. There is no resulting boom.
- The administration, as a whole, looks corrupt and chaotic. Cabinet members are replaced on a regular basis.
- Trump withdraws from NAFTA with great fanfare. Business objects loudly, and a deal is reached with the Mexican government with only cosmetic changes.
- The combination of protectionist measures and the unnecessary tax cut causes the Fed to raise interest rates significantly. The result is the “Funhouse Reagan” version of the Trump slump.
- After some domestic terrorist incidents, Trump demands new powers of surveillance from Congress, and gets them. He ignores court decisions finding the new powers unconstitutional.
- Trump engages in a war with the press, and refuses to speak to anyone except Fox News. Leakers from his chaotic government are threatened with prosecution, and libel suits are filed, but the MSM continue to oppose him.
- There are no major changes to Medicare or Social Security.
- Trump gives his unqualified support to the police, and racial tensions increase dramatically.
- The US withdraws from the Paris Agreement. The world reacts with scorn.
By 2020, the market is down, interest rates and unemployment are way up, and American prestige throughout the world has never been lower. The US is viewed as a rogue and militaristic nation. China, in spite of all of its weaknesses, is now looked to as a source of stability throughout the world. Trump has thus made China great again.