As I noted about a month ago, there is a clear analogy tying the French election to ours. Fillon, the socially conservative Thatcherite, sounds a lot like Ted Cruz, while the line connecting LePen and Trump is too obvious to merit much comment.
It has been almost universally assumed that the left will vote for Fillon in the second round. Personally, I don’t see it. A center-right candidate, yes, but not one with his agenda.
Trump will be casting a lengthy shadow over this election. I’m not sure how that plays out. If his first few months in office are perceived to be a success, I suspect that will make LePen look more viable. If not, maybe not. We’ll see.
In any event, if Fillon wins, France is almost certainly looking at a year full of strikes and violent demonstrations. If LePen wins, the very existence of the EU is in danger.
Sounds great to me—not.