2017: The Year of the Chicken

On the Chinese calendar, 2017 is the Year of the Rooster.  In the US, on the other hand, it is much more likely to be the Year of the Chicken, because you can anticipate that the Trump Administration will be playing chicken with its adversaries, real and perceived, around the globe.  The most likely military confrontations will be with North Korea, China, and Iran.

I would bet on North Korea being first on the list, because:  (a) neither sanctions nor incentives has worked to modify the regime’s behavior; (b) there is a worldwide consensus regarding the regime; (c) the clock is ticking on North Korea’s ability to launch a missile that can hit the US; and (d) victory there would strengthen Trump’s hand in the forthcoming confrontation with the Chinese over the trade deficit and the South China Sea.

We’re entering a world the likes of which hasn’t been seen in my lifetime.  We’ll know a lot more about it at this time next year, assuming that we’re all still here to talk about it.