It wasn’t supposed to be this way.
Jeb! clearly agonized over his decision to run, because he knew that everything about his candidacy would infuriate the Reactionaries, and he would pay a heavy price for it. In the long run, however, he believed that his establishment connections would make him the undisputed leader of the Romney Coalition, and that the GOP was insufficiently suicidal to nominate a Reactionary. He would, therefore, lose some battles along the way, but he would win the war, just as Romney did, and the Reactionaries would fall in line in order to defeat Hillary.
Two things have happened to upset these calculations:
- Rubio decided to run, and has made a surprisingly strong showing during the debates. This means that Jeb!’s control of the Romney factions is very much in doubt. Furthermore, he has few effective lines of attack against his former little buddy other than lack of executive experience. Rubio’s great weakness in this process is his apostacy on immigration, but Jeb! is in no position to talk about that.
- Trump is destroying him during the debates. Every time I see the two of them together, I am reminded of the scene in “The Last Emperor” in which the eunuchs are forced to leave the Forbidden City carrying their testicles in boxes. He doesn’t look like a winner, and PBPs have no time for losers (they are pragmatists, after all).
If Jeb! were any other candidate, his donors would already be scurrying off to Rubio, and the chasm of irrelevance would loom ahead. Since he already has a huge amount of money in the bank, however, he can go on indefinitely.
As I see it, his options are as follows:
- He can accept that Rubio is a better candidate and quit. Given his pedigree and financial resources, that won’t happen.
- He can focus his attention and resources on destroying Trump. Since Trump’s supporters won’t make him their second choice, this approach won’t help him get the nomination, but it would do wonders for his self-esteem.
- He can start running lots of Rubio 3 AM phone call commercials and argue far more forcefully against Trump that he is the only qualified and electable candidate in the race. In my opinion, that is his only realistic path left to the nomination.
The bottom line is that Rubio and Trump are to his campaign what Assad and ISIS are to American policy in Syria–the trick is to avoid helping one by destroying the other. Can he thread the needle? Based on what we have seen so far, you would have to say no.